It is officially Championship Week in college basketball, also known as the start of the most unproductive 2 weeks of work for those that live the office life. While the first weekend of the NCAA tournament might be my favorite sports weekend of the year, championship week is right behind it. There is no shortage of exciting games to watch and gamble on, and the action usually gets started by noon each day. This is the last chance for most teams to make up for deficiencies they’ve had during the year and try to punch an automatic ticket to the dance by winning their conference. Temple is no exception to this, as they ended the regular season at 16-15 (5th place in the American) and will need to win the conference tourney if they want to extend their season past this weekend. The NIT is probably out of reach, and I suppose the CBI and Basketball Classic are possibilities, but no one is getting excited for those.
The Owls did earn a first round bye with the 5th overall seed in the AAC tournament, but their 2nd round matchup is already determined (vs 4th seed Cincinnati). A win against Cincinnati almost certainly would draw Houston in the semifinals and probably Memphis or Tulane in the championship. It’s definitely a difficult path to the championship game, but on the bright side, Temple has beaten every team on their side of the bracket. With a first round bye, the Owls first game is not until Friday at 3pm and it would only take a small run of three straight wins to bring home the trophy.
The Cincinnati matchup will be interesting for sure. The two teams split their regular season series with one of the games going to overtime. Temple won the first matchup in Philly and did so without Jamille Reynolds who was recovering from hand surgery. For the second game, the Owls were without leading scorer Khalif Battle and they will be without him moving forward after he was dismissed from the team or quit or whatever happened. Being without your team’s leading scorer would seem like a huge obstacle to overcome, especially after losing two heartbreakers on the road at the end of the season, but it hasn’t hurt Temple as much as you’d expect. The offense has actually looked smoother without Battle in the lineup and the defense has been more aggressive. Battle’s ability to get hot quickly from beyond the arc and his consistent free thow shooting have certainly been missed, but it’s not too much to ask for other guys to fill that role. My biggest concern is that the Owls repeat their performance from this spot last season (they were the 4th seed and faced Tulane). Last year in their first and only conference tournament game, Temple was sluggish, unprepared, and generally looked like they didn’t want to be there. They were outcoached and outworked and it left a bad taste for the entire off-season. Hopefully McKie has his guys ready to play this time.
It wouldn’t be a good preview without some predictions, right? Here is a game by game breakdown of how I see this tournament playing out:
Game 1: (9) ECU vs (8) USF
USF won both of the regular season matchups and they are the better team in my opinion. They could be in trouble if they are forced to shoot a ton of free throws as they rank 344th out of 363 teams in free throw percentage, but ECU is not much better at 288th so I think the Bulls will survive.
Winner: USF
Game 2: (10) SMU vs (7) UCF
The two teams only played once this year in early January which resulted in a blowout by UCF, but SMU was also without leading scorer Zhuric Phelps at that time. During the Temple-SMU game, I must’ve heard 10 times that SMU is not as bad as their record suggests and they did end up winning that game. Add in the fact that this is basically a home game for the Mustangs and I think this is ripe for an upset.
Winner: SMU
Game 3: (11) Tulsa vs (6) Wichita St
Tulsa has won 1 game since December 16th, 2022. Not much more to say on this one.
Winner: Wichita St
Game 4: (8) USF vs Houston
USF actually played Houston very tough in their lone meeting this season. I’d love to see them pull off the upset but I can’t see it happening. Houston comes ready to play in March.
Winner: Houston
Game 5: (5) Temple vs (4) Cincinnati
Temple should’ve swept Cincinnati this season. In the second game at Cincy, the Owls committed fewer turnovers, shot a better percentage from the field, and committed fewer fouls. Rebounding was even except for “team rebounds” which basically just means the ball went out of bounds off the other team. Cincy won that battle 7-1. The Bearcats also shot 28 for 30 from the free throw line (93.3%) which is well above their season average of 70%. To me this sounds like home court advantage was the difference. I’m going to pick Temple to win the rubber match in a very close game but I am fearful that the Owls just don’t show up and get blown out like we’ve seen so many times before.
Winner: Temple
Game 6: (10) SMU vs (2) Memphis
Memphis handled SMU with relative ease in both meetings this season. I have no reason to think this matchup will be any different.
Winner: Memphis
Game 7: (6) Wichita St vs (3) Tulane
This one is a coin flip for me. Tulane would probably be favored so from a betting perspective I would go with the Shockers. Both teams have been inconsistent throughout the year and I don’t have a particularly good feel for either one.
Winner: Wichita St
Game 8: (5) Temple vs (1) Houston
If anyone has a shot to knock off the #1 seed it would be the Owls considering they already did it once this year. Beating Houston twice in one season is too much to ask though. Houston ends Temple’s season in route to another AAC championship appearance.
Winner: Houston
Game 9: (6) Wichita St vs (2) Memphis
This could end up being a good semifinal game but Memphis is the better team and they’ll earn a rematch of last year’s title game against Houston.
Winner: Memphis
Championship: (2) Memphis vs (1) Houston
I hate to go chalk with a 1 vs 2 final but the teams have those seeds for a reason. Memphis was unable to get it done last year in the AAC final against Houston and I really can’t see things going differently this year. I think the addition of Frank Haith to Memphis’s coaching staff has been huge for them this year, but Houston has spent most of the season as the #1 team in the country and that will be too much for Memphis to overcome. Congratulations to Houston on winning the title in their last season in the AAC. Now please get the hell out.
Winner: Houston
We Give a Hoot TU 