Back by popular demand, we have the predictions for the Temple Owls 2023-24 season! The season officially began yesterday with the Owl’s getting a 85-65 win over UMES, which also happens to be the largest margin of victory in a Temple coach’s first game in the history of the program. Not a bad way to start off the Adam Fisher era. I initially was not going to do predictions this year since there is so much roster turnover this season, plus a new coach, plus a very different looking AAC, and of course the general state of college basketball thanks to the transfer portal, but people really seem to like the predictions and I’m happy to do it. Since we are starting after the first game of the season, I have a little more information about how the team will look, but I promise that I was predicting a win over UMES before yesterday. Instead of a prediction for that game, we have a brief recap to start things off. That’s enough build-up, lets get into it:
MD – Eastern Shore (11/6)
Temple opened the season with somewhat of a surprise starting lineup. The Owls led with Hysier Miller, Matteo Picarelli, Jahlil White, Sam Hofman, and Steve Settle. Temple jumped out to an early 7-0 lead and never really lost control. There were plenty of stretches that were not pretty but UMES shot woefully bad in the first half, especially from 3-point range, so Temple was able to stretch their lead to 25-6 at one point, and finished the half up 35-23. The second half was more of the same and the Owls were able to coast to a 20 point victory after leading by as many as 31. Temple had four players score double figures including 14 from freshman Zion Stanford, who looked very comfortable getting to the rim. Jordan Riley was unable to play in last night’s game, but will likely be a starter or at least see significant minutes when healthy. W (1-0)
@ Navy (11/10)
Navy is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Patriot League and an 18-13 record on the 2022-23 season, but all of their top 5 scorers have graduated. Navy began their 2023-24 season with an 11 point loss to Campbell. Temple should be able to handle this team without too much trouble. W (2-0)
@ Drexel (11/14)
These games always seem to be closer than they should be regardless of the talent each team has. With that said, Drexel is returning their leading scorer in Amari Williams who I think will be a matchup problem for the Owls. I would expect Temple to be a slight favorite in this game but the Dragons come away with a win. L (2-1)
Columbia (11/18)
I can’t say that I’ve ever seen a Columbia basketball game that I can remember, and I’m one of the degenerates that gambles on Friday night Ivy League games. Columbia doesn’t have a ton of roster turnover from last season, but they finished the year at 7-22 and 8th in the Ivy League. There are only 8 teams in the Ivy League. Losing this game would be a huge embarrassment. Columbia opened their season last night with a 78-59 loss at Providence. W (3-1)
Ole Miss (11/22)
Ole Miss had a rough season last year which ended the tenure of coach Kermit Davis. In addition to retaining some of last year’s talent, the Rebels are bringing in transfer guards Jaylen and Brandon Murray (no relation to my knowledge). They also made a high profile coaching hire in Chris Beard. Beard was previously at Texas for the beginning of last season before being fired for reasons unrelated to coaching performance. I would expect Ole Miss to take some big steps forward this season, and that most likely includes a win over Temple. L (3-2)
La Salle (11/29)
This game will be a part of the new big 5 format, so we won’t know who Temple would play next if they were to win this game (probably Villanova). As far as the Explorers are concerned, Josh Nickelberry and the Drame twins have moved on and it doesn’t look like they’ve added much talent that can immediately contribute. Temple handled this team with relative ease last season, and I think they will be able to duplicate that result. W (4-2)
*Villanova
This game is completely theoretical but seems like the most likely scenario. Villanova would represent the only non-conference team on the Owl’s schedule that is currently ranked, assuming this game does take place. Nova is returning Eric Dixon and Justin Moore along with some high profile transfers like Lance Ware, Hakim Hart, Tyler Burton, and TJ Bamba. Temple was able to knock off Villanova last season, but since that game the two teams have moved in the opposite directions. L (4-3)
Bloomsburg (12/6)
I really don’t understand why Temple would schedule this game. No disrespect to Bloomsburg, but playing a division 2 team cannot help in the NET rankings. A win over a D2 school counts for nothing, but a loss could be devasting. It’s unlikely that Temple would lose this game, but stranger things have happened. I don’t know anything about Bloomsburg as a basketball team, but why schedule a game like this instead of just a preseason scrimmage? If Temple loses this game, there needs to be a serious discussion about folding the program. W (5-3)
Albany (12/10)
Dwayne Killings’ squad is not coming off a particular strong showing last season. They finished 8-23 overall and 9th place in the American East, also known as last place. They have a few bright spots in Jonathan Beagle and Aaron Reddish, but I think Temple can handle this team without too much trouble. W (6-3)
VCU (12/16)
VCU had a strong team last season (which Temple defeated by double digits by the way) but they did have a ton of roster turnover from last year. The Rams almost always seem to be a tough out and I still would have picked them to beat Temple had it not been for their 76-65 loss to McNeese St yesterday. It could have been a fluke, but I don’t know that they have the talent that we are used to seeing on that roster. W (7-3)
Nevada (12/21)
Nevada was a tournament team last season and they are returning two senior guards who averaged 17 and 14 points per game (Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear). They have one of the better coaches in college basketball in Steve Alford. This game is also part of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, and travel to Hawaii from Nevada is a little easier than coming from the east coast. I think the Owls will be a bit outmatched in this game. L (7-4)
(Two more games TBD from Diamond Head Classic bracket)
@ USF (1/4)
Temple-USF games always seem to come down to the wire, but Temple has gotten the best of the Bulls in 3 of their last 4 meetings. Both teams had to replace most of their scoring production from last year and for South Florida, most of that replacement comes from two Kennesaw State transfers in Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud. Maybe it’s because Temple got burned with their last transfer from Kennesaw State, but I have to give the Owls the edge for this game. W (8-4)
Wichita St (1/7)
The Shockers were a middling team in the AAC last season but they did manage to kick Temple’s ass in Philly this past February. The team will look different with the scoring seemingly going through transfer guard Colby Rogers (20 points in their first game) but the first thing I noticed when looking at the starting lineup is that they play two 7 footers for a significant portion of the game. They started Kenny Pohto and Quincy Ballard in their season opener and also mixed in 6’10” forward Jacob Germany. Temple’s frontcourt is probably their weak link this year so this looks like a particularly tough matchup. Shockers get the W. L (8-5)
ECU (1/10)
I’m not particularly high on ECU for the upcoming year. They are bringing back most of their core but are losing Javon Small to Oklahoma State and don’t have a means of replacing his production. They opened their season with a 30 point win against Ferrum College. I know what you’re thinking, “Ferrum College is probably a powerhouse division 2 school, so a 30 point win is pretty good”. After a quick internet search, I learned that Ferrum College finished last season with a record of 10-17 in Division III. That’s right, Division 3. ECU should have won that game by 100. I’m not worried about Temple playing this team. W (9-5)
@ North Texas (1/13)
North Texas enters the season and the AAC as the defending NIT champs. As successful as last season was for the Mean Green, they are probably in line for some serious regression this year. Their three top scorers from last season (Tylor Perry, Kai Huntsberry, and Abou Ousmane) have all moved on and the only noteworthy addition this year is UTSA transfer John Buggs III. I wouldn’t expect North Texas to be terrible, but the bar from last season is set very high considering their current roster. I think Temple can squeak one out here. W (10-5)
@ SMU (1/16)
This was a bad team last season that still managed to beat Temple in a nailbiter at Moody Coliseum. I would expect significant improvements this season as head coach Rob Lanier enters his second year with the Mustangs. In addition to returning their leading scorer, Zhuric Phelps, SMU will also be welcoming two power 5 transfers in Chuck Harris (Butler) and Tyreek Smith (OK State). They probably aren’t in the top of the conference conversation yet, but they look to be trending in the right direction. Temple falls to the Mustangs in Moody Coliseum. L (10-6)
Rice (1/20)
The other, other Owls in the AAC are coming off a second round loss in the CBI last year. The CBI isn’t exactly something to brag about, but Temple couldn’t manage to get an invite so who am I to judge. Rice could be a sneaky good team in the AAC this season. Their top scorer did transfer to Xavier (Quincy Olivari) but they are returning the next four highest scorers as well as welcoming transfer Anthony Selden from Gardner-Webb. In the transfer portal age of college basketball, having a roster that has played together can be invaluable for team chemistry especially early in the season. For that reason, Rice is not a team to take lightly in their first year in the conference. I know this game is at home, but this feels like a point in the season where the fatigue of travel starts to affect Temple. Flying to Texas and Florida as often as they will is eventually going to wear on the players and Rice will take advantage of that. L (10-7)
USF (1/24)
I figure Temple and USF will split the season series so this ends up as a loss. Not much more to add for this game. L (10-8)
@ECU (1/28)
As mentioned for the first matchup between these two teams, I’m really not worried about ECU. I could be wrong but I just don’t see the talent on this team. W (11-8)
Tulane (2/4)
Tulane was a tough out for Temple last season as the Green Wave swept the season series with the Owls. I would expect more of the same from this team since they were largely able to keep their roster intact from last season. The lone key loss would be Jalen Cook transferring back to LSU, although they did bring in sophomore point guard Asher Woods (VMI) who figures to replace Cook in the starting lineup. Temple lucks out having to only play this team once and at home. Tulane is squarely in the mix for the top spot in the conference. L (11-9)
Memphis (2/8)
Well if you thought Temple had a lot of roster turnover, let me introduce you to the 2023-24 Memphis Tigers. Memphis returns just two players from the previous season in Jayden Hardaway and Malcom Dandridge. This team however, should still be expected to compete for a conference title because of the talent they’ve acquired through the transfer portal. The expected starting 5 of Jahvon Quinerly (Alabama), Caleb Mills (Florida St), Jaykwon Walton (Wichita St), David Jones (St. John’s), and Jordan Brown (Louisiana) are all transfers coming off seasons in which they averaged double digit scoring (Quinerly in post-season only). They will also have a familiar face coming off the bench in Nick Jourdain. The talent is certainly there for this Tigers team, it will just be a matter of all new guys learning to play together. Temple plays this team in February, so they will have had plenty of time to gel together by then. I would expect Memphis to have some struggles early in the season, but ultimately to finish at or near the top of the AAC standings. *Update: Nick Jourdain and Malcom Dandridge both started in Memphis’s opener. L (11-10)
Charlotte (2/11)
Charlotte is expected to be one of the worse teams in the AAC this year, but they are still coming off a 22 win season which includes a CBI title. The 49ers did lose their top 2 scorers in Brice Williams (graduation) and Aly Khalifa (BYU), but they brought in 6’10” power forward Dean Reiber from Rutgers who is expected to start and replace some of the lost production. Temple looks to have more talent on the roster in my opinion though, and so I would expect a win here. W (12-10)
@ #10 FAU (2/15)
FAU probably won’t be ranked #10 midway through February, but after what we saw from them last year they could be even higher. FAU was just one bucket away from advancing to the national title game, and of the 9 players that logged minutes in the final four game, 7 of them are returning including 4 of 5 starters. The Owls were led in scoring by Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Vladislav Goldin, and Nick Boyd who are all only entering their junior seasons. It’s possible that this team just got hot at the right time last year, but they are clearly talented and now have the added advantage of having all played together deep into the tournament. FAU is the clear favorite to win the conference in their first season in the AAC. Temple isn’t even the best team of Owls in the conference anymore. L (12-11)
UTSA (2/18)
UTSA is the only new member in the AAC not coming off a winning season. After finishing 10-22 last season, there are only two current players that were on last year’s roster. It’s not necessarily a bad thing to replace an entire roster when the team was 10-22, but it’s also unlikely that the Roadrunners would be able to inject a ton of talent into a team following multiple losing seasons. By this point in the season, UTSA’s roster will probably have gelled reasonably well, but I don’t know that they have the talent to make any noise in the conference this year. Temple takes the first game at home. W (13-11)
@ Wichita St (2/25)
WSU will probably be the better team here and will be playing at home, but Temple is due for a good upset at some point this year and this just might be the right spot for it. No real reason on paper for this result, just going off a feeling. W (14-11)
@ Rice (2/28)
Rice got the better of Temple in the first matchup, and Temple returns the favor in Houston. I’m expecting these two teams to be relatively evenly matched this season, so a series split makes sense. W (15-11)
Tulsa (3/2)
This was the worst team in the AAC last season and by a wide margin. They made wholesale changes to the roster so they will probably be better, but it would be difficult to be any worse. Maybe they will have a dramatic turnaround but I’m certainly not predicting it. W (16-11)
UAB (3/7)
The Blazers are coming off a 29 win season this past year but they did lose a lot of their scoring production. In their season opener, they took Bradley to overtime but fell just short. Even with a game to sample from this year, I really have no feel for how this team will perform this season. This is a coin flip prediction (literally). Tails never fails and Temple wins this game. Fun fact: UAB has a starting guard named Tony Toney. It seemed worth mentioning. W (17-11)
@ UTSA (3/10)
I think Temple has the better roster vs UTSA although I haven’t exactly done a deep dive on the Roadrunners. Temple wins this game and finishes the season on a 5 game winning streak, making a strong push for conference tournament seeding. W (18-11)
18-11 (11-7 in conference) is not bad for a coach’s first season. It should be noted though that this schedule, especially non-conference, is very weak. I would usually consider 20 wins enough to be in the conversation for an at large bid, but with the above schedule it would probably require close to 25. Things can obviously change as the season plays out, but there are multiple teams on the non-conference schedule that finished dead last in mid major conferences last season. In addition to the soft non-conference schedule, the loss of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF from the AAC significantly weakens the conference, even though most of the new schools from Conference USA are actually coming off of great seasons. Even with a weak schedule, the expectations for a new coach with a mostly new team should not be very high. Temple finished 16-16 last season with a more talented roster, so as far as I’m concerned, anything better than .500 is a successful season.
I should also point out just how much more difficult it is to predict wins and losses the last few years. When I started doing this, I could sometimes get as high as 70% accuracy on picking games. At that time, I generally had a feel for most of the teams in the conference and the big 5. The transfer rules have absolutely destroyed that over the last few seasons. The amount of teams returning less than 5 players from the previous season is absurd. It used to just be Memphis starting 5 one-and-dones every year, but now it’s like some kind of weird fantasy draft every season. It certainly makes things more chaotic, which can also be a lot of fun, but if you read this and want to tell me how shitty my predictions are, at least now you know why.
We Give a Hoot TU 