Yesterday may have been the single greatest upset I have ever witnessed for Temple basketball. The Owls stunned #1 Houston on the road 56-55 making it the first time an unranked Temple team has ever defeated the #1 team in the nation in their own building (Temple defeated #1 Kansas in 1995 on a neutral court and defeated #1 Cincinnati on the road in 2000, but Temple was ranked #15 at that time). It wasn’t a pretty game, but excellent free throw shooting from the Owls proved to be the difference in a game in which they shot a worse percentage from the field, were outrebounded, and had more turnovers than their opponent. The defense was also incredible down the stretch, culminating in 2 huge back to back blocks from Kur Jongkuch and Nick Jourdain in the final seconds. This was a historic win for the Temple program and everyone involved should be riding high this week.
So what does this mean for the rest of the season and the future for coach Aaron McKie? There are plenty of factors to consider. First of all I should point out that WeGiveAHootTU is here to analyze and discuss Temple basketball from what we watch. Yes, we are alumni and fans but that does not mean we are cheerleaders for the team. When the team is performing well we will be there to hype them up, but when they struggle and play poorly you can expect criticism. This is Philly after all.
In terms of what this win does for the rest of the season, it is a huge step but there is still plenty of work to do. Temple entered the game on Sunday with a NET ranking of 143 and the win propelled that ranking to 126. 17 spots is a huge jump but there are no teams with a NET ranking over 100 that are even in the at large bid discussion. Unfortunately a win of this magnitude just isn’t enough to offset the monumentally bad home losses to Wagner and UMES. The good news is that Temple still has plenty of opportunities to improve upon their NET ranking. At UCF, home against Houston, at Memphis, at Cincinnati, home against UCF, and possibly a road game at Tulane all have the potential to move the Owls up in the ranks. Just as importantly, Temple has to avoid losses to teams in the bottom half of the conference. One more bad loss could probably end any post season hopes and that certainly includes Wednesday’s game against USF. Temple fans should also be rooting for the teams that Temple beat this season to help boost their NET ranking. Right now that looks like Rutgers, VCU, and Villanova (non-conference) that carry the most weight.
The Owls should get a nice boost with Jamille Reynolds returning to the lineup in the near future, but they’ll need to find a way to replicate how they handled pressure against Houston. Temple is averaging almost 14 turnovers per game but were able to keep that number at 11 against the best team in country. If they could bring their average closer to 11 turnovers per game, I could see that translating to 2 or 3 more wins. Having Reynolds back should definitely increase the team scoring in the post as well as drawing defenders away from the perimeter to free up shooters, but the turnovers have to be under control for it to matter.
To realistically be in consideration for an at large bid, Temple likely needs to win at least 8 of their final 10 games. It’s a tall task but it’s not impossible. It’s unlikely that the Owls will beat Houston again in two weeks, so that’s one of the 2 losses. The only other one that would be acceptable is probably at Memphis. That means Temple would need to win road games at UCF, Cincinnati, and Tulane without slipping up against teams like Tulsa, WSU, and SMU which have all been tough outs for Temple in the past. They also have home games against UCF and USF that they would need to win. This all seems like a longshot, but Temple will also have the conference tournament for an opportunity at an auto bid. The win over Houston is especially encouraging for this possibility because Temple has now proven that they can beat anyone in the conference, and they are in prime position for a first round bye in the tournament.
So what about coach McKie? Following the loss in December to UMES it felt almost certain that this would be his last season coaching the Owls. As big as this win is for the program, I think Temple would still need to make the tournament to justify keeping Aaron McKie for another season. The highs have been high and the lows have been low with this team but the expectation entering the season was for Temple to be in contention for an at large bid. Right now they simply are not. I was ecstatic to get wins over Villanova and Houston this year, but the goal of returning to the tournament would be the greater victory and that is only achieved through consistent high-level play. There is still time this season for that to happen but up until now this team has been anything but consistent. We have now seen that this team is talented enough to compete with anyone in the nation, and if Aaron McKie can keep them playing at this level for the rest of the season, he could actually secure a contract extension. I think we all just want to see it first.
We Give a Hoot TU 